Friday, September 2, 2011
They are a combined 9-5 after 5 weeks! My Week 5 game was Carolina. While they were only 1-2 their personnel looked a bit better than mine. Once the game started, it was apparent that their coaching staff had as much impact on the play results as mine. They had this rookie HB, Sweetney, who rated to get better with every carry.I think this game turned on play calling. When my coaches realized I would be calling most of the plays, they gave me a list! I stayed within a set of plays my players knew. I have about 60 offensive plays on my "can call" list and used about half of those. I did a little formation substituting to help keep Ronnie Brown fresh.
Even so, I thought the refs might cost me the game, and not in the way you think. With about 40 seconds left in the half I hit a FG to go ahead 10-0. On the ensuing (I learned that word in college!) (Or maybe I heard it on ESPN?) KO the Panthers got a holding call. They were at their 36. I just dismissed the penalty menu item thinking the ref would "do the right thing" like he always had before! WELL, NO.... he interpreted this as declining the penalty, giving Carolina the ball on the 36 rather than the 26. No big deal, right?
Delhomme now hit three straight passes into three different Dime, Zone Defenses. Scott Suisham barely had the time and the leg to close the half with a 46 yard FG. Doesn't sound like much, right?
Then in the 4Q with the score 10-6, the Panthers were almost to midfield when they got a holding call and lost a fumble on the same play. This time I wasn't delegating the choice, I was declining this penalty. But, when I looked at my choices there were a lot of pronouns used and it wasn't clear who was who! While I was looking for my Magic Eight Ball, all of a sudden the ref marches off the 10 yards and gives Carolina the ball back!
Well, justice prevailed and my Dolphins held on to win 13-6. I really need to talk to the Commissioner about this. I'm sure Hyde will back me up, he's very happy right now that my Dolphins are 4-0!
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Nothing lasts forever, and this streak came tumbling down in a very messy way at an inopportune time. Buffalo was next and there's nobody the Miami fans hate more than Buffalo. This game got off to the most discouraging start of any football game I've ever seen. We took the opening KO and immediately got holding penalties, back to back. My OC got so flustered he topped that with a delay of game. We managed to wriggle back out to the 20 by 4th down and it appeared the worst was over. Then came the blocked punt, run in for a touchdown, of course.
Oh, well, it's only 0-7. We took the next KO and this time it was sacks rather than penalties. Three in a row to be precise! maybe those holding calls weren't so bad. Soon the Bills had the ball on our end of the field and drove effortlessly to another TD!
Down 14 and we are barely underway!We did rally back within one point but ultimately succumbed 24-19. Mr. Singer was in a really foul mood, not to mention the fans and the media. my approval rating went from 86 to 57, and this with a 4-1 team tied for the division lead.
About now a lot of my time was being taken by the financial side of the business. I have some of my important players coming up for renegotiation next year, so it was more important to watch next year's cap number than this year's. I decided to deal with anyone I might want on my team next year with the thought that there would not be much in the way of bonuses and incentives. That way I can cut players freely next year without incurring penalties. A by product of this approach is that this year's cap space goes up and 2010 goes down.
I ran into several unfortunate demands by useful players. My starting DT, M Patterson, who I traded for (making $600K) wanted $21.4M over 6 years! Both of my backup OLBs and both backup DEs wanted silly numbers even though they just rated a bit better than the unemployed. I'll just have to sift through the leftovers again next year.
More Difficult was Mark Clayton. He currently makes $1.7M and rates as my best receiver. He wants $5.7/2. That's not out of the question, but he only started this year as an OVL 77 and went down to a 75 early in the season. (Many of my player's ratings went down early in the season and then came back late in the season.) I expect both of my draftees, Kidd and Clayton, to catch or surpass Clayton by next year. He has to go.
The surprise was my UDFA RB Dewayne Hayes. He looks really good for a 24 year old OVL 77>87. To my eye he runs the ball better than L Booker, my higher rated, #2 HB. I moved him up to #2 hoping he would develop faster and cost less. Whoops, he wanted $13.4M/6 including a bonus. Serious sticker shock from a player making $290K! I put him back on 3rd string in hopes he would be more reasonable later.
Back to the field. We won an easy game against Oakland and a close one against Atlanta. Baltimore was next up. The scouting report indicated they preferred to run, but closer inspection showed they really only ran on obvious down and distance and threw in a bunch of QB draws and scrambles in most situations. This took some getting used to!
By the time it was over Troy Smith passed for 222 yards and ran for 51 more!This game turned on few plays at the end of the first half. The Ravens were up 10-6 and we were forced to punt with about 30 seconds left in the 2nd Quarter. I thought the ball had gone into the end zone for a touchback and was rummaging in my duffel bag for the M8B when my DC, Mike Smith, started whooping and shouting. The ball had stopped at the one and while I was otherwise occupied, we scored a safety!
We got a nice runback and a scoring pass to go into half up 15-10! The second half was tight but we held on to win 25-18. Those 9 quick points sure came in handy!Back to the office. I ultimately decided to sign Hayes for $11.4/6 inc. bonus. If he develops like I expect, that will be a bargain compared to Booker who will be up for a new contract next year. I picked up a nice backup OL (25, OVL 78>79) who was injured and put him directly onto IR. He signed a reasonable extension. That also lets my trainer practice his skills and only costs some of Hyde's money.
Finally, I found a good CB (24, OVL 82>86), Chris Houston, on the FA market. He immediately becomes my best CB! I signed him to an extension for $13.1M/6. My cap space for 2010 is currently -$0.5M. I hope that will play out something like this. The cap should go up $3M or more before I have to cut to fit. That should give me enough space to sign my draftees and walk-ons. If not one cut should make enough room.
The larger concern is the important contracts expiring after 2010. QB A. Woodson, C S Satele, RB R Brown, DE J Taylor, K A Serna, FB R Mauia, RB L Booker. The first three are pretty much must do's! My hope is that the impact will hit future years where I have $36M cap space in 2011. My concern is that I may need more 2010 cap space to resign Woodson. May be time to cut ties with J Taylor!
Back on the gridiron, there followed a 12 point victory over Tennessee and a surprisingly defensive struggle with P. Manning and Indy, 13-6. The rematch with Buffalo went much better and now we stood at 10-1, second in our division to the 10-1 Pats! Our loss was to the Bills, a division foe and theirs was to Tampa Bay, an NFC power.
Games 12 and 15 were with New England and it looked like we had to win them both to take the division. A careful review of their roster revealed why they were doing so well. Damn, they have a bunch of good players and really good coaching to boot!
The game was just a good butt kicking. We did manage to spring two big pass plays (44 by Conely and 67 by Ginn) to go into half at 14-14. But it was really never that close. Miami got only 29 yards rushing, made 11% of third down conversions and got no points in 2 trips to the red zone. Turnovers were 4-0 plus two failed fourth down conversions in favor of NE. A final score of 30-14 was deceptively close!
Twelve point victories over the Jets and Texans (with J Taylor going to IR) brought us back to NE at 12-2. NE still had only the one loss. This game felt entirely different. K Phillips picked off Brady's 1st pass to get Miami off to a 3-0 lead. There followed a long stretch where Miami had the best of it building a 17-0 lead. NE came back to make it 17-7 but the Dolphins had their first chance at a kill shot with less than a minute left in the half. It was 3rd and 5 on the NE 15 when Ellis Hobbs picked off a Woodson pass and took it 90 yards for a TD. A nice two minute drill got Miami back a FG to go into half up 20-14.
The 3Q went scoreless but NE seemed to gain some traction in the 4th despite losing ground on the scoreboard. Two Gostkowski FGs were more than offset by a 61 yard Woodson to Conely connection and a 94 yard Ginn KO return. That looked like a kill shot. 34-20 with 4:15 left in the game. But, noooo...
NE methodically marched down-field to score on a 3 yard pass with 2:00 left. No onside kick!!! Miami ran the ball three times suffering losses on each play, NE got the ball back and scored the tying TD with seconds to spare!The Pats won the toss for OT but then that fickle fellow, Moe Mentum, changed sides once more. New England went three and out, a nice punt return followed by a first down allowed Serna to win the game with a 44 yard FG!
37-34 Dolphins!! This time we out rushed them 62-31 and were almost even on third down conversions and red zone performance. Maybe it was the orange jerseys! Or maybe it was because Randy Moss was out!Down to the last game and we could have home field throughout or be a wild card depending on next weekend's results! Has there ever been a wild card with a 14-2 record?
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I swear my team played the first half of the Jets game like it didn't matter. (now that would be some thoughtful programing!). We were down 16-3 at half but woke up and won 27-16. Turned out, it didn't matter, NE won and Miami got the same wild card at 14-2 it would have gotten at 13-3!
Our wildcard playoff game was at Pittsburgh. They were a dedicated running team but Steven Jackson was out. They still had Willie Parker to fall back on! Who can afford Willie Parker for a backup! We were up 17-0 at half but just managed a 17-10 final, largely due to a classic goal line stand early in the fourth quarter. First down at the two, three shots into the line followed by a PA pass got them nothing!
There was a wacky game quirk right at the end. On fourth down, in the 4Q, with more time on the play clock than the game clock, I get a "defining moment" challenging me to go for it. So I said OK, I wasn't punting anyway! Now it made me call a play w/o moving the game clock and my QB took the snap immediately instead of letting the time run out. Pittsburgh got off two Hail Marys from mid-field!
The Colts were next. You may recall Miami won a 13-6 meeting during the regular season. This game was the opposite but the Dolphins prevailed again, 52-42, thanks to Ted Ginn's TWO KO returns for TDs! Manning threw for 557 yards and 6 TDs, breaking Norm Van Brocklin's record of 554! Time for a rubber match with New England!
Hyde's really excited. My Approval is at an all time high, 97! And then.......... NE 62 Miami 24!
I had very little idea of how to approach free agency, the draft, the salary cap. So my first move was to forbid anyone on my staff from making a decision. Wouldn't want them making me look bad!
I read somewhere that a good team started with good linemen, And this team only had two good linemen out of 8 starters. Jason Taylor and Sampson Satele. I needed so many players I decided to only go after good players in free agency but to stay away from the top stars with the top price tags. For example I passed on bidding for Alan Faneca and went after the next tier of offensive linemen, looking only a players under 30. Looking for affordable, under 30 and OVL 80-85, I ended up with too many OL.
It really hacked me off that I would be high bidder and then the player wanted to negotiate a bonus and incentives on top of that!
There was one guy I refused to negotiate with and I never heard from him again!I just shut down bidding when my cap room got down around $20M. I didn't know how much I needed for my draft picks but I read in Sports Illustrated once about a number one pick that got $60M over several years. I might need $10M just for that #1 pick!
I had no idea how to approach the scouting so I got me one of those Magic Eight Balls (but I didn't share that information with my staff). I decided to trade down and get more picks, hopefully less expensive, but I couldn't figure out how, so I just kept my pick and pretended that's what I intended to do all along!
I thought the draft went well. I had two firsts, two seconds, a fourth and a seventh. I got Jake Long, Kenny Phillips, and Andre Woodson who all turned out great. The other three picks all went for CBs and the best will be a useful backup! (Actually, entering the 2009 season, Terrell Thomas looks OK and Orlando Scandrick is a nice return man, not that I need another one).
My opening day starters were:
Pos Name Age/Ovl/Pot
QB A Woodson 22/80/93
HB1 R Brown 24/88/92
HB2 L Booker 24/82/88
FB A Mauia 24/81/88
WR1 T Ginn 23/84/94
WR2 S Parker 27/80/88
WR3 D Hagan 24/70/84
TE D Clark 31/77/77
LT J Long 23/89/96
LG S Andrews 27/90/92
C S Satele 22/87/92
RG J Scott 27/86/87
RT J Gross 28/92/93
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LE A Odom 25/85/86
RE J Taylor 34/92/92
DT1 R Moore 29/78/79
DT2 R Leisle 26/76/78
LOLB J Porter 31/88/88
MLB1 O Thurman 26/81/82
MLB2 L Williams 25/78/81
ROLB C Crowder 23/78/83
CB1 W Allen 30/78/78
CB2 T Thomas 22/73/80
CB3 I McGrath 23/72/82
FS D Smith 30/82/82
SS K Phillips 21/86/92
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K A Serna 22/83/92
P B Fields 24/81/83
I did get some inside skinny on Serna, an article I read on the internet!
This looks like a Superbowl squad to me!!!
After going 1-3 in Preseason, I was starting to think this might not be quite so easy! I even crawfished to the point I only promised Papa Singer I would win more than 3 games!
I lost a close game to the Jets to start the season. Then I nipped the Cardinals in a wild affair. I pulled up to 27-28 with a minute left vs. the Patriots and failed on a two point try. LT put 295 yards rushing on me as we lost to the Chargers.
After winning one of my next three games, I had a most frustrating game with Denver. My approval numbers were already low after the Bills (of all teams) knocked my record down to 2-5. The fans really wanted a win over the Bills. Well, I had 5 defining moments in the Denver game and none went well. I refused to onside kick with 9 minutes left down by 3. I had the ball, 4th and goal on the Denver 11 with 3 seconds left on the clock and they wanted me to go for it instead of tying the game with a FG. In overtime I was challenged to go for it on 4th and 14 on my 20! The really sad thing was that I had a 1st down on the Broncos 17 yard line at one point and I called a run. Booker fumbled and we eventually tied!
My approval rating was down to 9. Could it get so bad Papa Singer fired me during the season?
Then both Brown and Booker came up lame the day before the Seattle game and we got shut out 19-0. My approval went up when accepted some silly challenges out of desperation and a couple actually worked!Things seemed to be getting better, winning 2 of the next 4. I should have won a crazy 46-43 OT game against the Rams but I came out 0 for 2 chasing 2 point conversions late in regulation. Steven Jackson was the only player to rush the ball for the Rams and he carried it 45 times!
I lost an embarrassing 31-3 game to the Jets to close the season at 5-9-1.
Toward the end of the season I thought we were getting the hang of it until the Jets kicked our teeth in!On the financial side of things I wasn't happy. By the end of the year I had over $20M cap space left over in 2008 that did my team no good and only about $11M to work with in 2009. I had maybe 20 players who wanted to renegotiate their contracts. I resigned any remotely useful player who would take no bonus and no incentives. I figured I could always cut them and no harm would be done to the 2009 cap.
There were several players that were demanding contracts I thought were just silly. For example, R Leisle who I got off the scrap heap for $900K. He worked out well and I figured a 50% raise was about right. He wanted $10.5M for three years AND a $2.5M Bonus!!!
(Later my GM pointed out that the $10.5M included the bonus. I told him I knew that. ) I lost 4 starters who just wouldn't be reasonable.Woodson was the Offensive Rookie of the Year and Phillips took the same honor for defenders. The 1st overall pick, Jake Long, worked out well so there IS some joy in Mudville.
Papa Singer decided I could keep my job another year and wanted me to keep my staff. I didn't feel so generous. Somebody has to take the blame for that wretched season and I can't think who else might be at fault!
Hired vs. Fired
OC Jim Caldwell 48 replaces Dan Henning 40
DC Mike Smith 56 replaces Paul Pasqualoni 19
QBC Chris Staymates 78 replaces David Lee 19
WRC R Fichtner 61 replaces K Dorrell 11
OLC Bill Laveroni 38 replaces Mike Maser 23
LBC Bill Bourbin 56 replaces Jon Rose 10
Trainer R Wyman 99 replaces R Rodriguez 14
I feel much more comfortable having better coaches to blame the bad stuff on. On the downside, they demanded I allow them to make some decisions. They even changed the way the team evaluates talent. I don't know how anyone can't know speed is the most important thing of all! And they tell me some of my guys are dumb. Duh, they're jocks!
The cap went up a bit so I had $14.6M to work with. I was determined not to have all that money left over at the end of the year (it felt like having timeouts left over at the end of a game) so I calculated very carefully what I should spend to get my cap space to almost nothing at the beginning of training camp. I hired TE B Patrick and OLB M Boley to fill two of my most obvious needs. After the draft and walk-ons, cap space was down to $1.03M.
Then Gil Darnell asked me how I would resign my veterans who were in the last year of their contracts.
I assured him he needn't worry! This year's draft didn't go quite so well. My foolish new OC and WRC insisted that the receivers I had wouldn't do at all. I used both my first and second round picks on WRs, J Kidd and R Conely. The jury is still out, but they didn't wow me like Long, Phillips and Woodson did last year. In the third round I took a CB who didn't make the team. A LT in the 6th didn't make it either and a 7th round CB Is fighting for the 5th CB spot on the roster.
On the upside, I got 3 starters in trades for players who weren't going to make my team, along with a late (6th or 7th) pick in each case. I got 6 useful backups from the walk-ons, one has an 85 potential.
This team looked much better in preseason, winning 3 of 4 in a comfortable fashion. They don't make as many mistakes, they tackle better and catch better, they're just better. Then I compared this year's opening roster with last year's. It doesn't look any better. Now some of that may be the harsher preferences of the new staff members, but just looking at the rosters, I wouldn't expect much better results. Gil Darnell rates my talent 16th and last year he had my talent at 8th at one point!
At any rate, here they are:
Pos Name Age/Ovl/Pot
QB A Woodson 23/86/94 *
HB1 R Brown 25/89/90 *
HB2 L Booker 25/81/88 *
FB A Mauia 25/84/88 *
WR1 J Kidd 24/77/91
WR2 M Clayton 27/77/77 $
WR3 T Ginn 24/70/84 **
TE B Patrick 25/79/84
LT J Long 24/94/96 *
LG S Andrews 28/90/92 *
C S Satele 23/89/91 *
RG J Scott 28/87/87 *
RT J Gross 29/94/94 *
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LE A Odom 26/86/87 *
RE J Taylor 34/92/92 *
DT1 M Patterson 25/79/80 $
DT2 R Wright 25/74/77
LOLB J Porter 32/85/85 *
MLB1 O Thurman 27/81/81 *
MLB2 K Deas 23/78/82 $
ROLB M Boley 25/87/88
CB1 W Allen 31/81/81 * $
CB2 T Thomas 23/77/81 *
CB3 R Starks 23/73/81 $
FS D Smith 31/76/76 * $
SS K Phillips 22/86/92 *
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K A Serna 23/85/92 *
P B Fields 25/84/90 *
* returning, ** returning at different position, $ Contact up
So out of 28 "starters" 8 are new, 20 are returning, 4 are over 30
I have $2.26M in cap space. I consider the 6 starting players whose contracts are up to be my least important starters, well except for DT R Wright, he's expendable as well.
I'm predicting this team will do a lot better. I think the improved coaching staff and the continuity will be a big lift, but clearly the thing that will put them in the Superbowl chase is their head Coach!
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